US Election 2020 – November 6 reflection

I wrote this text on the morning of November 6  ….. Just saw my inbox explode, with incomprehension from my American, conservative friend …..

So, Georgia and Pennsylvania are now led by Biden, and they struggle to reconcile why …. Ironically, i tried to explain the exact same phenomenon in March 2020, at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic…..

Sample bias, this is unreal that people still struggle to understand the effect of having a sample bias in your test (Only test people with symptoms)  , an election, is like a poll, so in some case, some region, will have a “Bias” for a party or another ….

In this case, most absentee ballot, and mail in ballot, are overwhelmingly leaning for the democrat, add to that the location (Big city), and your proportion of Democrat ballot in those counties are now evident ….

Trump openly told his supporters not to vote by mail, to vote in person, on the day of the election, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see what we see now, that we are in the mail in ballots in the big city .

The fact that Trump claim that those ballot are illegal, is preposterous, nobody is really shocked by his reaction, he want to stop the counting in Pennsylvania, Georgia, but continue the counting in Arizona/Nevada, the hypocrisy  is strong, he should remember that in 2016, it took 2 weeks to call Wisconsin for Trump ……

He simply sow the seed of his next step of his career, and is simply not able to admit he lost, we will have years of Trump banging on the drum of cognitive dissonance, using his alternate reality he built since 2014/2015…. Sadly he’s most likely going to be more and more extreme in his claim, especially when inquiries are going to be made in his numerous “Deal” will be made….

Still not sure if he planned his numerous intervention about mail in ballot, only to say on Election night that he won, did he really think it would work, probably not, but at least, for his base, it make him a victim, he will surf that until 2024 (2022), for either him to run again, or Jr to run…. It’s a crazy proposition, but it’s not that far fetched ….

November 6