I can’t say the war in Ukraine was a surprise, what was ,was the scope of it really, it was fully expected that Putin was going to take the east of Ukraine, with maybe a strip of land between Crimea and the newly conquered eastern part of Ukraine.
Now total war to conquer all of Ukraine was not really expected, firstly, because 190K soldiers was not that much to conquer a huge country of 44 millions, and i can’t really see the upside to try to conquer it all at once, and i don’t know what to think about it, is it arrogance? Expecting this new campaign to be as easy as the conquest of Crimea, or there’s something else ?
I alway thought that Putin was a pretty clever strategist, always knowing where the West red line is, and knowing pretty much the reaction that the West is going to have , but right now, it look like he underestimated the West reaction, the Ukrainian military opposition and the internal effect of that invasion, it’s really out of caractere, and it worry me, i don’t think we ever saw a desperate Putin, and it may happen sooner than later.
Rumor abound, and specialist don’t know, now we understand that information war is happening on both side, so we need to be really cautious, but persisting rumor about Putin declining health are numerous , i even heard it from a european country consulairy personnel posted in Moscow, now that’s worrying in my book, if this kind of rumor go around in consulate.
It may be part of the information war, but if we consider the implication, it’s hard to deny that the Putin we see right now, seems different, at least a lot less calculated than before.
Maybe he’s physically fine, and it was just a gross miscalculation on his part, maybe it was just that, but again, only the idea that this could be the act of a dying man that want to made his mark in history book, is scary, because it open a whole new range of possible harsh reaction on his part .
The war is not going great for Putin, the fact that they don’t have complete air superiority is really surprising, manpads provided by the West really made Ukraine sky a dangerous place for Russian plane and helicopter, anti tank missile, like Javelin, AT4, Carl Gustav, Nlaw, Rpg 7, Panzerfaust 3, RPV-16,M141 BDM (and more), leveled the playing field in urban and semi urban battlefield, Putin is now shelling city indiscriminately, because of that, so it’s a bittersweet result, but it mean that Ukrainian strategy is working, is it going to be enough? Probably not, but what other choice is available to Ukrainian ? Let Putin take their country freely ?
This delay of Putin plan can have many result, make Putin reconsider his goal (That’s not the most likely outcome sadly), make Putin more desperate, escalating the conflict, i fear it may make him escalating, we already see more indiscriminate bombing/shelling of city, the question is how far he’s willing to go, hearing specialist talking about chemical and Tactical nuke, feels like a bizarro world.
And here we go, living in this bizarro world, where we watch horror on TV on a daily basis, like a gut wrenching tv series, but in the real world, that revive some memory of the end of the cold war, the uncertainty, the feeling that you can’t do much, but we’ll do as much as we can, for the time it’s limited to Ukraine, it will mean sending the essential Europe to take care of those displaced Ukrainian, sending weapon, and take as much of those who want to come to Canada, and if the shit hit the fan, and it go over Ukraine/Moldova, to Nato county, be ready to respond, in kind.
That’s a daunting prospect, but like the Ukrainian who fight right now, there’s no other choice, than dig your heel and push back at some point.
За здоровя (Good health in Ukrainian)