Ukraine conflict

Geopolitics is a complex subject, the world is all tangled together with commercial interest, secret desire, old grudge and the lot.

In a world still battling Covid-19, even though most country are trying to put it behind, there’s still a possibility that it will bite us in the ass on the medium term, but clearly most government buckled under the popular pressure, it’s alright, in the end, people will have to accept to potentially deal with more death,  when people say that we need to learn to live with covid, i say that we also need to learn to die with it too, it’s a choice, if the vaccine continue to reduce the severeness, we will be alright, if not, we may be literally fucked.

The “Freedom Convoy”, is a symptom of that pressure, thankfully it’s a really small diverse group, with a core of alt right, representing people that really don’t care about Covid-19, just using the situation to further their agenda.

So now we have Russia that seems determined to invade at least part of Ukraine, at this point if it’s a bluff, it’s a weird and costly one, still a possibility that Russia backs down, if they evaluate that it’s going to cost too much.

The endgame is still debatable, they obviously don’t want Ukraine to get closer to Europe, and Nato, the list of demand that Moscow  gave is a sham, they know nobody CAN agree to give that kind of guaranty to Russia, Ukraine was not close to be in Nato, and every move that Moscow made, is getting Ukraine closer to Europe.

A lot of commentators are saying that Russia doesn’t want a successful democracy on its doorstep, maybe, still, Ukraine is still a shaky democracy, in part because of the multiple attacks by Russia, but not strictly because of that.

Now Russia just recognized 2 areas in Ukraine, held by Moscow-Backed separatists, probably the first stage to invade, now we still don’t know the extent of that invasion, but either way, it may have dire consequences on the world economy, already fragelized by Covid-19 .

The stage is set for an invasion soon, so the next few days will be interesting and will put pressure on the world economy. If the sanctions are as bad as the U.S.A and Europe are saying, Moscow may cut some energy link with Europe, the big unknown is China role in all this, we know they have some kind of financial arrangement with Moscow, they have a huge pipeline planned to China, to diversify the potential client of Russia energy .