Canada Election day.

This is today, we may not know the “Winner” today, some county are too close to call before the mail ballot will be opened.

Right now, we are looking at a probable minority government, probably Liberal, so, all of this was probably a huge waste of time for most, for politicly savvy people it will show how Canadian politics is changing.

If O’toole don’t win, he’s probably gone, he tried to realign the Conservative to the center, to the great dismay of his base, it was a “Beau risque” for sure, with the actual situation, this was the only way to win, the problem is that most people may believe he is a centrist, but we all know that the bulk of his ministrable deputy, are way more on the right than him, and with the PPC taking valuable percentage outside Alberta and Manitoba, it’s almost impossible for him make gain outside the western part of the country, still tight, in some place in Quebec it’s a 3 way fight, so anything can happen .

Two turning point, were probably the english debate, that gave a lot of momentum to the Bloc in Quebec, crushing some hope for the Concervative, in Quebec, capturing a more nationalist vote, and the Alberta Covid fiasco, the worst timing ever for Concervative, a week before the vote, Alberta declaring emergency measure, when at the beginning of the campaign, O’toole was saying that Jason Kenney and Alberta managed the pandemic very well ….

And it’s not because Jason Kenney did’nt try to delay the announcement of the Vaccination proof, and all the other measure that other province implemented month ago, the situation was simply intenable, hospital are at capacity, to the point were they want to move patient to other province, who themself made sacrifice all summer long to not be in this situation, there’s a lot of “La Cigale et la fourmis” (The Grasshoper and the ant) from Jean de la Fontaine in that story, and other province are relunctant to take them, most health service in the country, is overworked, stretched thin, and it was clear, that with very light mitigation measure, and no incentive to get vaccine (With a 67% vaccination rate), it had the potential to explode.

So in a way, O’toole was linked to Kenney for the Covid measure, now that Alberta will have even more extreme measure than other province (Private indoor gatering are not limited in most province), a lot of right wing are going to protest with a vote to the PPC, taking precious vote from key place outsite the west province.

The PPC will probably not take any county, they still take ~6% of the national vote, it’s huge, they probably will die when covig go away, but still for such a fringe group, it’s a lot, some candidate are certified wako.

All in all, the die is cast, don’t hold your breath, i would put a toonie on Liberal, minority government, a little bit less county, but they will probably carry it with the NDP, with arroun 180 county, we can expect this minority government to stay in place, at least until the end of the pandemic.